SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO) filings have cast the company in a new light, with a significant portion of its projected $2 trillion valuation now tied to its foray into AI compute leasing. The company disclosed a deal with Anthropic, a rival AI firm, worth up to $45 billion over three years, where Anthropic would pay SpaceX $1.25 billion per month for access to its Colossus data centers. This agreement was presented as a critical revenue stream, offsetting the substantial losses incurred by SpaceX's own AI unit, formerly xAI, which burned through $2.5 billion in Q1 2026 alone while generating just $818 million in revenue.
The disclosed Anthropic deal, if long-term, provides a much-needed financial anchor for SpaceX's AI segment, which otherwise struggles with high capital expenditure and a smaller user base for its Grok AI compared to competitors. Analyst notes quickly interpreted this as a "strategic masterstroke" ahead of the IPO, offering secured revenue and establishing SpaceX as a credible AI infrastructure provider. Without this $15 billion annual run rate, the AI division's revenue base would collapse to approximately $3 billion, against continuing losses.
However, Elon Musk himself contradicted the filings via a post on X, stating that the Anthropic arrangement is merely a "180-day lease with 90-day notice mutual cancellation." While the prospectus did mention a 90-day termination clause, it emphasized monthly payments through May 2029, suggesting a much longer-term commitment. Musk's clarification drastically reduces the perceived value of the deal, turning a potential $45 billion contract into a short-term rental, which is atypical for the long-term commitments usually required to underpin massive data center investments.
This discrepancy has led to concerns among investors, especially as a lock-up period for employees is set to end, potentially leading to a sell-off. The short-term nature of the Anthropic deal, particularly if SpaceX chooses to reclaim the compute capacity for its own struggling AI ventures, undermines the narrative of a stable, long-term revenue stream that was crucial to justifying its ambitious valuation. While Starlink remains a profitable and dominant segment, driving over half of SpaceX's revenues, the uncertainty surrounding the AI arm and its key leasing agreement is weighing heavily on the company's share price post-IPO, which has already seen dramatic slides since raising $86 billion.
