Venezuela is closely examining plans to leave OPEC, the oil cartel it helped establish more than 60 years ago, according to Bloomberg News. This potential departure, dubbed "Vexit," has been a topic of discussion with U.S. officials, though no final decision has been reached. While a formal exit would primarily affect market psychology and the perceived unity of the Saudi-led group rather than immediate oil supply balances, it signifies a fresh blow to OPEC's cohesion.
Venezuela's current oil production stands at approximately 900,000 barrels per day, a significant recovery from its 2020 low of 400,000 bpd but still far below its peak of 3.2 million bpd in the late 1990s. The country has been effectively exempt from OPEC's production quotas since 2018 due to its production collapse, making its formal membership largely symbolic in terms of direct supply impact. Despite holding the world's largest proven oil reserves at 304 billion barrels, Venezuela's oil industry requires substantial investment, estimated at around $200 billion, to restore production to 2 million bpd.
The consideration of leaving OPEC comes amid rapidly improving relations between Caracas and Washington. The U.S. Treasury Department's General License 44A, which temporarily lifted sanctions on Venezuela's oil sector, has been renewed multiple times, most recently in April 2026, fostering conditions for increased collaboration. This deepening U.S.-Venezuela energy partnership could introduce a new source of potential supply growth to a global oil market already facing a projected surplus of 1.5-2 million bpd for 2027, according to International Energy Agency forecasts. US energy companies with existing Venezuelan operations, such as Chevron and Schlumberger, and Gulf Coast refiners like Valero and Phillips 66, are poised to benefit from strengthened bilateral ties.
The immediate impact on oil prices from Venezuela's exit is expected to be minimal due to its current exemption from quotas. However, the long-term effect could be downward pressure on prices if U.S. collaboration successfully boosts Venezuelan output, adding barrels to an already well-supplied market. The next OPEC meeting on December 1, 2026, and the U.S. Treasury Department's sanctions review deadline on October 15, 2026, are key dates to watch for further developments regarding Venezuela's membership and energy cooperation.
