The head of US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced that international shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz have been cleared of Iranian sea mines, with US forces assisting nearly 1,500 commercial vessels in transiting the waterway. Admiral Brad Cooper stated that divers, special operations forces, and aircraft were used to clear the established traffic separation scheme, and that the lanes are now open, with momentum building.
Despite the clearance and assistance, commercial traffic remains below normal levels. While ten commodity vessels sailed through the strait on Wednesday, compared to a 10-day average of about 15, oil flows are still a fraction of the more than 20 million barrels per day that passed through before the conflict. The vessels assisted by US forces carried approximately 750 million barrels of crude oil destined for global markets. Admiral Cooper added that Iran has been unable to export any oil from its shores since the US resumed a naval blockade in mid-July, turning back about 75 vessels and disabling three that failed to comply.
Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are, however, creeping higher, with an estimated 6 million to 8 million barrels a day of crude now being shipped, according to oil traders. This is roughly half of pre-war levels, but represents a recovery since July, when Iranian attacks on supertankers heightened navigation risks. Goldman Sachs analysts estimate total Gulf oil exports have recovered to around two-thirds of pre-war levels, or 15 million to 16 million barrels a day, with traffic through the strait itself potentially tracking 8 million to 10 million barrels per day.
Producers in the Middle East, excluding Iran, are increasing exports. Some are using a system of shuttle runs, where tankers haul barrels just outside the Persian Gulf for collection by waiting tankers unwilling to enter the strait. This adaptation by producers and shippers, including a rise in "dark crossings" and ship-to-ship transfers, is contributing to the increased flow. Brent oil futures were trading at about $88 a barrel on Thursday, with the increased supply helping to keep crude prices in check.
