Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts, including Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby, suggest that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz might only reach about 70% of their pre-war volume. This projection is based on the increasing reliance of regional producers on alternative export routes to bypass the strait. To achieve a "normalization" in Gulf exports to pre-war levels, the report indicates that a 13 million barrel-per-day increase in Hormuz flows from current levels would be necessary.
While this specific article from August 28, 2026, was not directly found, a related Bloomberg article from June 18, 2026, titled "Goldman Says Hormuz Oil Flows May Recover to Only 70% After War" discusses the same analyst views from Goldman Sachs regarding the future of Hormuz oil flows. This earlier article highlights Goldman's perspective that 70% of pre-war Hormuz flows "might become the new 100%".
Recent data and observations support the trend of increased oil movement despite the security risks in the Strait. Current estimates from oil traders indicate that 6 million to 8 million barrels a day of crude are now being shipped through the strait, a significant increase from 4 million in mid-July. However, these figures are still considerably below the approximately 20 million barrels per day that passed through the strait before the conflict. The use of shuttle runs, where tankers move oil just outside the Persian Gulf for collection by other vessels, is a key strategy employed by all major regional suppliers except Iran to maintain exports. This method, along with increased loadings from countries like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Qatar, and Kuwait, is helping to stabilize global crude oil prices, which were recently trading around $88 a barrel for Brent futures.
