The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that U.S. marketed natural gas production will hit a record average of 122.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2026, surpassing the 2025 record of 118.5 Bcf/d. Much of this growth is concentrated in the Permian Basin and the Haynesville region. The U.S. has been the world's largest natural gas producer since 2009.
Permian gas production is expected to average 29.2 Bcf/d in 2026, a 6% increase from 2025. This surge is primarily linked to associated gas from crude oil extraction, bolstered by strong crude oil prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices averaged $84 per barrel through July 2026, significantly exceeding the breakeven prices for Midland Basin ($69/b) and Delaware Basin ($63/b) operations, as reported by the Dallas Fed Energy survey. The Permian is also experiencing an increasing gas-to-oil ratio (GOR) as reservoir pressure declines, making natural gas easier to produce.
Despite the robust production, the Permian Basin has faced challenges with insufficient pipeline capacity, leading to a natural gas glut. The Waha hub, a regional pricing benchmark, saw an average spot price of -$2.19 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in the first half of 2026, a stark contrast to the Henry Hub national benchmark at around $2.70 per MMBtu. New pipelines, such as the expanded Gulf Coast Express Pipeline (GCX) and Energy Transfer's Hugh Brinson Pipeline, are expected to alleviate these constraints by moving gas to East Texas and Gulf Coast demand centers, including LNG export facilities. However, some executives believe it will take until 2027 or even longer for these bottlenecks to be fully resolved.
The Haynesville region also contributes significantly, with production increasing by 7% (1.1 Bcf/d) in the first half of 2026 compared to the same period in 2025. Overall, Haynesville natural gas production is projected to increase by 9% (1.3 Bcf/d) in 2026. The Henry Hub spot price is forecast to average $3.44 per MMBtu in 2026, a 2% ($0.08) decrease, but drilling in Haynesville remains economical due to its proximity to LNG export terminals and industrial consumers along the U.S. Gulf Coast.
