The rapidly developing El Niño weather system poses a significant threat to global food security, with forecasts suggesting it could push approximately 50 million people into acute hunger before the end of next year. This would add over a fifth to the current 225 million people in 45 countries already experiencing acute food insecurity, according to the UN's World Food Programme (WFP).
Private sector forecasters have already warned about El Niño's impact on global food prices. The World Bank has also cautioned that El Niño risks driving up global food prices. Historically, every strong El Niño in the past 55 years has reduced cocoa output, and current predictions suggest dryness in Vietnam, a major coffee producer. Tropical commodities are particularly exposed to these weather disruptions.
The World Meteorological Organization warns that this summer's El Niño could be exceptionally severe, with some forecasters describing it as "super" or "Godzilla." Weather anomalies are expected to intensify from July of this year, peak during the winter, and gradually weaken by the summer of 2027. However, some systemic effects may persist, potentially impacting food availability and pricing into 2027 and 2028. Regions most likely to be affected include Central and South America, the Caribbean, southern Africa, and south and southeast Asia, where reduced rainfall could severely impact agriculture.
The global food system relies heavily on a concentrated supply chain, with wheat, rice, maize, and soybeans accounting for over 60% of global calories. The potential disruption to these key crops, combined with existing challenges like fertilizer shortages, inflation, and rising oil prices, threatens to push an already fragile food industry to the brink, with the costs ultimately landing in consumers' shopping baskets.
