US stock futures showed little movement in early trading on August 26, 2026, as market participants braced for the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report and Nvidia's quarterly results. This muted reaction comes after a period of heightened sensitivity to inflation data and a concentrated focus on megacap technology earnings.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis is set to release its Personal Income and Outlays report for July, which includes the PCE index, today at 8:30 AM Eastern. FactSet consensus forecasts predict a 0.07% month-on-month rise in headline PCE, recovering from June's 0.11% decline, which was the first negative monthly reading since 2020. The year-on-year headline inflation is expected to slightly ease to 3.6% from 3.7%. Core PCE, excluding volatile food and energy prices and closely watched by the Federal Reserve, is forecast to increase by 0.18% month-on-month. Economists are divided on the annual core figure, with estimates ranging from holding steady at 3.3% to a slight easing to 3.2%. Natixis chief US economist Christopher Hodge holds a slightly more hawkish view, forecasting headline PCE to remain unchanged at 3.70% year-on-year, citing persistent upward pressure from AI and data center investments impacting computer hardware and software prices.
The inflation data is particularly significant as it precedes Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's inaugural Jackson Hole keynote address scheduled for Friday. A softer-than-forecast core PCE reading would likely bolster expectations for Fed rate cuts, potentially supporting equities, especially growth and technology stocks like Nvidia, which was down 0.78% to $213.05 in early trading. Conversely, a hotter-than-expected print, especially in the core measure, would reinforce hawkish arguments, likely pushing Treasury yields higher, pressuring growth stocks, and strengthening the dollar. This scenario would also validate the unusual dissent seen within the Fed's own ranks, where four regional bank boards favored tightening ahead of the last FOMC meeting.
Nvidia's shares were trading at $213.05, a 0.78% decline from the previous close, in pre-market trading, reflecting investor caution ahead of its earnings report. The stock experienced heightened volatility, with a trading range of $210.11 to $214.73. The Nasdaq 100 futures declined 0.42%, and S&P 500 futures fell 0.31%, indicating particular weakness in technology shares. Implied volatility for Nvidia options expiring within one week reached 68%, nearly double its 30-day historical volatility, underscoring the market's anticipation of significant price movement following these key events. Institutional flows showed a trend of caution, with $487 million in net outflows from technology sector ETFs in the early session, contributing to $2.1 billion over the past five trading days.
