Copper prices are holding near record highs, with the three-month LME copper contract reaching $14,343 per metric ton, close to its all-time peak of $14,527.50. This surge is primarily attributed to tight inventories in LME warehouses and robust demand from the United States, which is preparing for potential import tariffs on refined copper starting in 2027. Orders to withdraw 65,400 tons of copper from LME warehouses further fueled concerns about supply availability outside the U.S. COMEX inventories have increased for 46 consecutive days, reaching a record 675,185 metric tons as traders move metal into the U.S. to preempt these tariffs. scrapmonster.com

Despite recent inflows into LME warehouses, which saw a jump of over 35,000 tons, the largest since 2024, the underlying physical tightness persists. bloomberg.com ING analysts highlighted that renewed withdrawals from LME warehouses, with cancelled warrants increasing by 51.4kt, the largest daily rise since May, indicate that any inventory recovery might be temporary. tmgm.com The US imported nearly 885,000 tons of refined copper cathodes in the first half of 2026, a 3% increase from the previous year, and is on track to match the record 1.64 million tons imported in 2025. indexbox.io

Analysts from CRU initially projected a 639,000-ton global copper surplus for 2026, but now view the market as at best balanced due to the tariff-driven stockpiling in the U.S. They warn that if U.S. imports continue at the current pace, the market could effectively face a deficit. scrapmonster.com Commerzbank noted that the market experienced a significant deficit of 85,000 tons in June, reducing the year-to-date surplus to just 32,000 tons, citing weak mine output and production issues in Chile and the DRC. tmgm.com

While some analysts, like Macquarie's Alice Fox, believe it would take years to consume the record COMEX stockpiles, she also warns that prices would "massively spike" if a U.S. tariff is enacted. Glencore CEO Gary Nagle, conversely, suggests that a definitive announcement on tariffs, regardless of the duty, could cool prices by removing market uncertainty. indexbox.io China, despite being the world's largest copper-smelting nation, has limited capacity to offset shortages elsewhere due to strong domestic demand, as noted by Amelia Fu from Bank of China International. scrapmonster.com