US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has announced an "economic D-Day" campaign aimed at severing all economic ties with Iran, threatening sanctions against any country continuing to do business with the Islamic Republic. This aggressive stance is intended to isolate Iran and end the nearly six-month-long conflict. President Donald Trump is reportedly contacting world leaders, making "specific requests to cease their interactions with the regime," and countries will be given a timeline to cut ties or face unilateral US punishment.
However, this threat places China, Iran's largest trade partner, squarely in the crosshairs of potential US sanctions. China accounts for approximately 90% of Iran's oil sales and reported $9.96 billion in two-way trade with Iran in 2025, in addition to an estimated $31.2 billion in Iranian oil shipments. Targeting China would be a risky move for Washington, potentially leading to severe economic blowback from Beijing and unraveling efforts to stabilize US-China relations ahead of an upcoming summit between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Analysts like Brett Erickson of Obsidian Risk Advisors and Jennifer Kavanagh of Defense Priorities express skepticism about the US's willingness to fully target China. While previous Trump administration sanctions have hit some Chinese entities, including Hengli Petrochemical (Dalian) Refinery and several shipping lines, major Chinese financial institutions involved in Iran's oil trade have largely been untouched. Kavanagh suggests that if the US does target China, Beijing would retaliate and has significant leverage to impose costs on the US.
China has vehemently opposed US sanctions against Iran, advocating for diplomatic solutions. China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated on Sunday that Beijing remains committed to "promoting peace talks" and seeks to restore peace in the region. Wang Wen of the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies warned that China would inevitably take countermeasures depending on the "severity of US actions" and that Beijing's "bottom line cannot be crossed." While the US may make it more challenging for China to support Iran, completely stopping Beijing is unlikely, as China is expected to flex its own economic statecraft in response to US pressure.
