Anthropic's upcoming initial public offering (IPO) is reportedly hinging on an internal forecast of achieving $190 billion to $200 billion in revenue by 2028. This ambitious projection, a figure not previously disclosed, is being utilized by bankers and investors to justify a potential valuation for the artificial intelligence company that could approach $2 trillion.
This 2028 revenue target represents a substantial increase from Anthropic's recently publicized financial performance. As of July, the company's annualized revenue run rate, which extrapolates full-year revenue from a shorter period, exceeded $65 billion. This marks a sevenfold increase from its performance at the end of last year and is significantly higher than the $47 billion run rate reported in May 2026, which itself was up from approximately $9 billion at the end of 2025. The projected 2028 revenue implies more than a quadrupling of revenue in just over two years.
However, some analysts express skepticism about the sustainability of such a high valuation. David Merkel of Aleph questioned whether a $2 trillion valuation would hold over time. A key caveat to these projections is the high operational costs associated with training new AI models, particularly significant spending on GPUs, compute, and model training. The optimistic outlook assumes these costs will decrease as a percentage of revenue as the business scales. Concerns also exist about the potential for cheaper rivals to erode the economic assumptions underpinning these high valuations.
Despite these concerns, the valuation discussions for Anthropic have been escalating. The company has already received investor offers valuing it at $800 billion and was reportedly considering a valuation closer to $900 billion in a recent $50 billion funding round. The current IPO chatter, however, pushes towards the $2 trillion mark. The market is being asked to price the company based on a future revenue target two full years before those receipts are realized, raising questions about the reliability of such long-term forecasts in a rapidly evolving market.
