Russia appears set to extend its ban on diesel exports at least until the end of August. This decision is primarily driven by persistent Ukrainian drone attacks targeting the country's oil refineries, which have led to domestic fuel shortages. The initial ban was implemented to prevent these shortages after a flurry of attacks by Ukrainian drones on the nation's refineries, as confirmed by Bloomberg on July 8, 2026.
This potential extension is exacerbating an already tight global market for middle distillates. Russia's diesel and gasoil exports plunged to a multi-year low of just 80,000 barrels per day (bpd) during the first seven days of August. In stark contrast, Russia had shipped as many as 1 million bpd of diesel and gasoil in the previous year. The decline in Russian fuel supply, combined with reduced exports from the Persian Gulf, has significantly tightened refined petroleum markets, leading to record-high cracks and margins in the Atlantic Basin.
The global refinery crude throughputs in July were $5 million bpd below year-ago levels, at $80.9 million bpd, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). The IEA now forecasts a $2.5 million bpd drop in global throughputs on average in 2026, with a rebound of $3.5 million bpd expected in 2027. Despite a $700,000 bpd increase in U.S. fuel exports in July compared to the prior year, global seaborne trade in petroleum products plummeted by $3.8 million bpd, largely due to the decrease in diesel and jet fuel exports from Russia and the Middle East.
Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak had previously indicated on July 25, 2026, that Russia planned to lift the diesel export ban once the market recovered, to prevent a glut at refineries and avoid cutting processing volumes. However, the ongoing drone campaign by Ukraine, aimed at forcing peace negotiations, has continued to impact Russian refining infrastructure, leading to prolonged gasoline and diesel shortages for over three months and delaying the recovery of the domestic market.
