The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical flashpoint, with the US-Iran conflict central to its future. US President Donald Trump has consistently taken a hard line, stating that there are no ongoing talks with Iran and maintaining that the US military controls traffic through the Strait. This stance has kept the situation in limbo, leading to ongoing tensions and significant disruptions to shipping.
Evidence suggests Iran is losing substantial control of the Strait of Hormuz. Despite Iran's claims of control, the US Navy is gaining ground, with over 80% of liquid transits in recent weeks utilizing the UN-authorized Omani route or conducting "dark" transits. This contrasts with previous periods where a significant number of vessels openly defied US threats by using the Iranian route, as reported by maritime intelligence firm Kpler. Shipping through the strait has also slowed considerably, with only five commodity vessels transiting on a recent Saturday compared to 31 the prior weekend, following recent tanker attacks.
Despite the overt tensions and military posturing, covert oil shipments are playing a crucial role in stabilizing global crude prices. Producers are actively ferrying oil through the Persian Gulf undetected, transferring it to tankers in the Gulf of Oman. This workaround helps prevent energy-driven inflation spikes, even as the war drags on. The price of Brent crude, which surged past $100 per barrel on several occasions during the conflict and reached $92.9 per barrel recently, is being somewhat contained by these alternative shipping methods, which mitigate Iran's leverage over oil flows.
