U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated on Tuesday that oil exports from the Middle East through the Strait of Hormuz have risen above pre-war levels, and that approximately 9 million barrels per day have been transiting the waterway for the past week. He also claimed that the U.S. military facilitated the movement of over 15 million barrels of oil and petroleum products through the Strait on Tuesday alone, with a total of nearly 20 million barrels leaving the region when combined with pipeline exports. However, these figures are met with skepticism by oil market analysts and commercial shipping data services.
Independent data from firms like Kpler, which uses satellite imagery and shipping transponders, show much lower numbers. Kpler reported only 84 total vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz last week, with as few as nine on Sunday. This is significantly down from over 100 transits per day before the conflict. JPMorgan estimates the actual oil flow through the strait is closer to 4 million barrels per day. Rory Johnston, an oil market researcher, noted that all independent ship trackers estimate current oil flows through the strait to be between 4 million and 6 million barrels per day, challenging the administration's claims as "egregious."
Analysts also questioned Wright's claim of 5 million to 7 million barrels per day leaving the region through alternative pipelines and export routes, with Johnston's numbers suggesting closer to 4 million barrels per day from the East-West and Fujairah pipelines. The discrepancy is particularly striking given that observable vessel traffic through Hormuz has reportedly fallen. Despite potential "dark" vessels operating with limited visibility, analysts say Washington needs to disclose its methodology to reconcile the stated figures with physical market observations. Brett Erickson of Obsidian Risk Advisors called the administration's recent numbers "utterly preposterous" and "complete crap."
Oil traders appear to share the skepticism, as international and domestic oil prices have been inching towards a four-week high. Brent Crude futures closed at $91.62 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate settled at $85.83 a barrel on Wednesday, the highest for both benchmarks since July 24. This suggests that market participants do not believe traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is nearing pre-war levels, despite the administration's assurances.
