Pilbara Minerals (PLS) CEO Dale Henderson, speaking at the Diggers & Dealers Mining Forum, indicated that the lithium market is recovering and will not see a crash similar to previous downturns due to a lack of "low-hanging fruit" for new supply. He highlighted that the industry is much larger than it was in 2022, and the supply response from that period has already occurred. The next wave of supply needs to be significantly larger to meet the growing demand, but there are very few, if any, funded greenfield projects currently. This sets up a potential shortfall in supply in the coming years.
Henderson noted a deepening and broadening demand for lithium, driven by energy security concerns and strong growth in electric vehicles, stationary batteries, and emerging e-mobility sources like electric trucks. Benchmark Mineral Intelligence (BMI) has revised its long-term spodumene price forecast to $2,465/t for June 2026, a 100% increase from its June 2025 forecast of $1,235/t. This forecast is based on an expected 219% rise in demand by 2040. Despite a recent pullback in stock prices for lithium companies like Liontown (down nearly 60% since May 1) and Pilbara Minerals (down 35.6%), industry leaders remain cautiously optimistic.
Pilbara Minerals is positioning itself as a reliable supplier in this shifting market, with Henderson coining the phrase "reliability is the new scarcity." The company reported strong operational performance in the June quarter, with sales reaching 249.9kt at an average realized price of $2,107/t for SC5.2, generating $743 million in group revenue. Its cash balance significantly increased by 57% quarter-on-quarter to $2.29 billion as of June 30, 2026. The company also achieved record FY26 production of 880kt, up 17% from FY25, with unit operating costs falling 9% year-on-year to $569/t FOB. Pilbara Minerals is maintaining optionality for its P2000 expansion, which could double its Pilgangoora production capacity, preserving its timeline without immediately committing capital.
