Zijin Mining Group, a co-owner of the Kamoa-Kakula copper complex in the Democratic Republic of Congo, faces challenges in meeting its copper production targets due to significant flooding at the mine. The Kamoa-Kakula complex, a joint venture between Ivanhoe Mines (39.6%), Zijin Mining Group (39.6%), Crystal River Global Ltd. (0.8%), and the DRC government (20%), is one of the world's largest copper sources and was projected to become the third-biggest global supplier of the metal. The flooding, caused by seismic activity in May 2025, forced the shutdown of the underground Kakula mine and has led to revised production forecasts.
Ivanhoe Mines, the operator, has significantly trimmed its copper production guidance for the Kamoa-Kakula complex. The 2025 forecast was reduced by 28% from an initial 520,000-580,000 tonnes to 370,000-420,000 tonnes. For 2026, the guidance has been further reduced multiple times. Initially, a 600,000-tonne target was withdrawn. Later, Ivanhoe trimmed the 2026 outlook to between 380,000 and 420,000 tonnes, then subsequently to a more cautious 330,000 tonnes. This conservative strategy prioritizes mine development and infrastructure strengthening for long-term stability.
Dewatering efforts at the Kakula mine are progressing, with approximately 70% complete on the western side and 60% on the eastern side. Around 13.4 kilometers of underground workings have been rehabilitated, allowing for a partial resumption of operations in the western section of the Kakula mine since June 7, 2025. The complex also commissioned its smelter on December 1, 2025, transitioning from selling copper concentrate to higher-value copper anodes, which will impact reported output volumes and is expected to boost 2026 sales by destocking approximately 20,000 tonnes of copper concentrate. Despite these efforts, the ongoing recovery from flooding and the cautious operational strategy will impact overall output for both Ivanhoe and its partner Zijin Mining in the coming years.
The Kamoa-Kakula project now aims for production between 380,000 and 420,000 tonnes in 2027 and targets exceeding 500,000 tonnes annually from 2028, with a medium-term target of approximately 550,000 tonnes. The incident has exacerbated concerns about the delicate global copper supply balance, a critical metal for electrification and the energy transition, contributing to its surging prices. Wood Mackenzie estimated global copper mine disruptions to reach 650,000 tonnes after incorporating Ivanhoe's updated guidance following the flood.
