Ashley Hinson has never lost an election. Now, the Republican congresswoman faces a strong challenger in her bid for Iowa’s open Senate seat, a race Democrats hope to win.

Republican U.S. Representative Ashley Hinson is facing a strong challenge in her bid for Iowa's open U.S. Senate seat, a race Democrats view as a key opportunity to gain control of the Senate. Hinson, who has never lost an election and has represented her eastern Iowa congressional district since 2021, secured the Republican nomination with the endorsement of former President Donald Trump. She prevailed over former state Senator Jim Carlin in the primary. This contest is for the seat being vacated by retiring two-term Republican Senator Joni Ernst.

Hinson's Democratic challenger is state Representative Josh Turek, who won a competitive primary against state Senator Zach Wahls. Turek, 47, received significant support from outside groups, notably VoteVets, which spent $10 million on advertising, according to AdImpact, due to his personal story of being born with spina bifida attributed to his father's Agent Orange exposure in Vietnam. Turek has criticized Hinson, stating she "does not represent Iowa and does not represent our values," while Hinson has characterized Turek as a "liberal" masquerading as a moderate.

While Iowa has trended Republican in recent elections, Democrats see an opening due to factors like high prices, job losses, and a struggling agricultural economy. A Fox News poll indicated Turek holding a 4-point lead over Hinson (50% to 46%), within the margin of error. However, a NorthIowaToday.com poll showed Hinson with a 3-point lead (48% to 45%), also within the margin of error. Turek's support is particularly strong among women with college degrees (65%), independents (59%), urban voters (59%), and voters under 30 (55%), while Hinson draws support from White evangelical Christians (67%), men 45 and over (55%), and veterans (52%).

Enthusiasm for Turek among Democrats is higher (67% extremely motivated) compared to Republicans for Hinson (53%). Turek also boasts a net positive favorability rating of 18 points (51% favorable, 33% unfavorable), whereas Hinson's net favorability is negative by 7 points (42% favorable, 49% unfavorable). The Republican-aligned Senate Leadership Fund plans to spend $29 million to defend this seat, underscoring its importance to the GOP's Senate majority aspirations. Voters are divided on Hinson's ties to Trump, with 50% concerned she is too close to him. Inflation is a primary concern for 39% of Iowans, an issue where Turek has a 15-point advantage.