Moderna and Merck announced on Wednesday that their personalized mRNA cancer vaccine, intismeran, successfully met its goals in a late-stage trial for melanoma. The vaccine, administered in combination with Merck's Keytruda, reduced the risk of recurrence and cancer spread in patients with high-risk melanoma whose detectable cancer had been surgically removed. This represents a significant breakthrough in cancer treatment, especially for the deadliest form of skin cancer, and positions the combination as a potential new standard of care.
The news triggered an ecstatic reaction in the stock market. Moderna's shares soared by as much as 177%, adding nearly $45 billion to its market capitalization, while Merck's shares climbed over 12%, reflecting hopes that the vaccine will bolster its oncology portfolio as Keytruda faces patent expiration. The Nasdaq Biotechnology Index also saw a 5.2% increase, hitting a new record high, demonstrating broader investor interest in the biotech sector.
Analysts have largely hailed the trial results as a major win and a landmark moment. RBC Capital Markets analyst Trung Huynh called it a "major win," and TD Cowen analyst Tyler Van Buren described it as a "significant validation" of the underlying technology. Some analysts revised their revenue projections, with William Blair analyst Myles Minter projecting peak annual sales of $5.4 billion in melanoma alone for Moderna's 50-50 revenue split with Merck. BMO analysts estimated a potential $2 billion in unadjusted peak revenue from melanoma, with up to $5.6 billion across multiple indications including renal cell carcinoma and lung cancer.
Despite the widespread enthusiasm, some analysts cautioned that the market's euphoric response might have overshot the vaccine's actual sales potential and therapeutic impact. Evercore ISI's Cory Kasimov noted that Moderna's new valuation "already prices in substantially more conviction than the data disclosed thus far supports." Leerink Partners analyst Daina Graybosch called the market reaction "overly optimistic," suggesting it set expectations that might be difficult to meet, especially considering the potentially higher per-patient manufacturing costs compared to standard biologic drugs and the uncertainty of success in other indications.
