Moderna's stock price experienced a dramatic increase, surging by more than 170% in a single day, adding nearly $45 billion to its market capitalization. This significant rise was triggered by the announcement of positive initial results from a late-stage (Phase 3) clinical trial for its experimental personalized cancer vaccine, intismeran, developed in partnership with Merck. The trial, involving over 1,100 patients with higher-risk or advanced melanoma whose cancer had been completely removed, showed that the mRNA-based shot, when combined with Merck's immunotherapy Keytruda, significantly extended the time patients lived without their melanoma returning and reduced the risk of the cancer spreading.
This success has been widely seen as a major validation of mRNA technology beyond infectious diseases, rekindling investor faith in Moderna's ability to diversify its revenue streams beyond its COVID-19 vaccine franchise. Analysts like Trung Huynh of RBC Capital Markets called it a "major win," and Tyler Van Buren of TD Cowen described it as a "landmark moment." The stock's jump placed its valuation at levels not seen since 2024, and while some analysts like William Blair's Myles Minter upgraded Moderna's rating and projected peak annual sales of $5.4 billion for intismeran in melanoma alone, others cautioned that the euphoric market reaction might have overshot the actual sales potential.
Merck also saw its shares climb over 10%, while Moderna rival BioNTech, working on similar vaccines, spiked by double digits. The strong results have led to increased expectations for the nine ongoing trials Moderna and Merck are running for other cancer types, including kidney, bladder, and lung cancers. However, some analysts, such as Evercore ISI's Cory Kasimov and Leerink Partners' Daina Graybosch, warned that the new valuation already prices in a high degree of conviction, potentially leaving little room for error and setting expectations that might be difficult to meet given the specific characteristics of melanoma that may make it uniquely suited to this type of vaccine.
