President Donald Trump has asserted that the naval blockade on Iran remains fully in force and the Strait of Hormuz is completely open. However, maritime intelligence firm Kpler contradicts this, reporting a substantial decrease in ship traffic. On one recent Sunday, only three ships transited the strait, and the weekly total was 95 vessels, a stark contrast to the pre-war average of over 100 ships daily. The administration has disputed these figures, suggesting "dark" transits are occurring to bring oil to market undetected.
The conflict in the Middle East, which began on February 28, has seen Iran bomb or threaten vessels, effectively paralyzing the waterway. Shipping traffic remains severely restricted, underscoring Iran's continued leverage over Hormuz. Before the war, roughly 130 ships sailed through the strait each day; however, between August 1 and August 19, only 236 ships in total transited. This includes oil and gas vessels, as well as those carrying dry cargo and chemicals.
Energy-carrying vessels are navigating the strait under challenging conditions. Between August 1 and August 19, 112 crude, LPG, and LNG carriers passed through Hormuz. Of these, 21 openly used the Iranian route, while only two formally used the Omani route. The majority, 89 vessels, used dark or unclassified routes, indicating a reluctance to openly defy Iran despite a US naval blockade. For all types of vessels, 83 openly used the Iranian route, three the Omani route, and 148 used dark or unknown routes.
The crisis has led to global energy shortages and fluctuating oil prices. Brent crude, the global benchmark, was approximately $66 per barrel before the conflict. It surged past $100 on several occasions during the war, reaching as high as $119 in March. Although prices fell after a ceasefire in April and an MoU in June, renewed tensions have pushed Brent crude to $92.9 per barrel. Experts suggest that fear of offending Tehran appears to outweigh Trump's threats, as a significant portion of vessels still use the Iranian route or unclassified paths, demonstrating Iran's enduring capacity to influence maritime traffic.
