John Sfakianakis, Chief Economist and Head of Research at the Gulf Research Center, stated on Bloomberg's Horizons Middle East and Africa that Iran is misjudging the United States' willingness to engage in a long war. This assessment comes as the Trump administration is reportedly preparing to unveil a comprehensive campaign to economically isolate Iran. The strategy includes plans to extend sanctions to countries, such as China, that continue to trade with Tehran. Sfakianakis discussed these developments with Abeer Abu Omar, focusing on the ties between the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and Iran.
This economic pressure is part of a broader hardline stance taken by President Trump against Iran. Just days prior, on August 18, 2026, Trump refused to extend a 60-day truce, which had been repeatedly violated, leaving the conflict in the Middle East and the standoff over the Strait of Hormuz unresolved. The expiration of this memorandum of understanding signals a lack of ongoing talks and a renewed focus on economic measures to pressure Iran.
While the US aims to achieve political concessions through economic means, historical precedents suggest that such tactics alone may not lead to rapid political change. Previous examples, such as Iraq, Venezuela, and Cuba, demonstrated that while economic sanctions can lead to currency devaluation, hyperinflation, and high unemployment, they have not always forced the desired political shifts. Iran has a demonstrated capacity to endure financial suffering, and with the current threat perceived as existential, its pain threshold is likely higher. This suggests that the economic isolation campaign, while significant, faces challenges in achieving its immediate political objectives.
