John Sfakianakis, Chief Economist and Head of Research at the Gulf Research Center, stated in an interview with Bloomberg's Abeer Abu Omar that Iran is misjudging the United States' willingness to engage in a long war. This assessment comes amidst heightened tensions and the expiration of a 60-day memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran aimed at negotiating a peace deal, which the Trump administration has no plans to extend.
Sfakianakis's comments are particularly relevant as the Trump administration prepares to intensify its campaign to economically isolate Iran. This strategy includes plans to extend sanctions and pressure to countries that continue to trade with Tehran, such as China. The aim is to choke Iran's economy and force political concessions, although historical precedents suggest that economic sanctions alone often fail to achieve rapid political change, as seen in cases like Iraq, Venezuela, and Cuba.
The economic pressure campaign is seen as the least bad way to end the conflict, according to some analysts. However, Iran has demonstrated a significant capacity to endure financial hardship. Despite US efforts to squeeze Iran's economy and oil sales, Iran may still hold leverage, particularly concerning the Strait of Hormuz, where shipping traffic remains severely restricted due to fears of Iranian attacks.
