Former U.S. President Donald Trump is reportedly pushing his aides to arrange a meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, potentially in November, coinciding with the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Shenzhen, China. This potential meeting would occur about two weeks after the November 3 midterm elections in the U.S., allowing Trump to highlight diplomatic progress.
However, analysts express skepticism that North Korea will agree to a summit. Pyongyang's economic circumstances have significantly improved since 2018-2019, when severe sanctions compelled them to seek negotiations. Now, bolstered by economic support from Russia and strong relations with China, North Korea has less need for sanctions relief. Its military cooperation with Russia is estimated to have generated between $7.7 billion and $14.4 billion from arms sales and troop deployments, with Bloomberg Economics placing military-related earnings from Moscow between 2022 and 2025 at over $14 billion.
Experts suggest Kim Jong Un might demand recognition of North Korea as a nuclear-armed state, a condition Washington finds unacceptable. Additionally, Kim may question the utility of meeting Trump if the Republican Party fares poorly in the U.S. midterm elections, potentially rendering Trump a "lame duck" with limited ability to implement agreements. North Korea views the U.S. as an untrustworthy actor, particularly after recent geopolitical events.
While some speculate Trump's outreach could be a diplomatic play ahead of the midterms, North Korea might be reluctant to provide him with such a political win. Critics also note Trump's ambivalence on denuclearization, raising questions about the core objective of any renewed summitry. A potential summit might only serve as a photo opportunity for the leaders, with little substantive progress expected, particularly if denuclearization remains off the table.
