Ghana Cocoa Crop Seen Falling 13% on El Niño and Disease Threats

Ghana's Cocoa Board estimates the 2026/27 cocoa crop will be 650,000 metric tons, a 13% decrease from the 750,000 metric tons produced in the previous year. This forecast, based on a field survey of pod counts, contributed to a rally in cocoa prices, which reached 2-week highs today. The expected decline is attributed to the combined effects of swollen shoot disease, aging cocoa farms, and the likely adverse weather conditions from an impending El Niño weather pattern.

The outlook for a smaller crop in Ghana, the world's second-largest cocoa producer, is further compounded by concerns over the 2026/27 Ivory Coast cocoa crop, which also shows signs of weakness with below-average cherelle formation. Early assessments for Ivory Coast predict a harvest of 1.8 million metric tons, an 18% reduction from the approximately 2.2 million metric tons in 2025/26. This broader West African production risk is a significant factor in the upward trend of cocoa prices.

Financial analysts have adjusted their global cocoa surplus forecasts downward. StoneX, for example, cut its 2026/27 global cocoa surplus estimate to 25,000 metric tons from an earlier forecast of 149,000 metric tons in April. Similarly, Transgraph Consulting predicted the global cocoa surplus in 2026-2027 would shrink to 80,000 metric tons from 415,000 metric tons in 2025-2026. These revisions underscore the severity of the expected production declines, particularly in West Africa.

Contributing to the bearish outlook for production are several factors beyond El Niño, which typically brings warmer, drier conditions detrimental to cocoa trees. These include the impact of swollen shoot disease, the increasing age of cocoa farms, and the detrimental effect of illegal gold mining (galamsey) in key cocoa-producing regions of Ghana. These issues collectively threaten to reduce yields and remove farms from production, leading to sustained upward pressure on cocoa prices in the medium term, despite a recent 20% increase in cumulative shipments from Ivory Coast and a 2-year high in ICE cocoa inventories.