SpaceX stock is under scrutiny following a significant milestone achieved by Chinese company LandSpace, which successfully landed a rocket booster for the first time. This event narrows the competitive gap with SpaceX, which has conducted over 600 booster landings since 2015. LandSpace's Zhuque-3 rocket, at 216 feet tall, can lift 40,350 pounds of cargo to low earth orbit, compared to SpaceX's 230-foot Falcon 9 with a 50,265-pound payload. Despite this, SpaceX's extensive track record and lead in reflight volume and cost per launch are seen as strong advantages by some analysts.
Adding to the competitive news, a new structural change is expected to put bearish pressure on SpaceX shares. Approximately 319 million shares, held by early employees and investors, are set to become eligible for trading on Thursday. This represents the Day 70 tranche in a staggered lockup agreement that will ultimately release about 88% of SpaceX's 13 billion shares through 2027. The stock saw a slight recovery in early trade after slipping overnight, having recently closed above its $135 IPO price on August 10th for the first time since mid-July.
Earlier this month, on August 6th, the stock surprisingly absorbed a much larger unlock of up to 911.5 million shares and subsequently rose by 6%. This previous unlock, valued at about $100 billion, saw significant trading volume. However, even larger supply tests are on the horizon, with a 1.3 billion-share tranche expected to unlock around SpaceX's third-quarter earnings in early November, followed by the 180-day expiry in December. CEO Elon Musk's 6.42 billion shares remain locked until June 2027. Currently, SpaceX shares are trading at $139.33, down 2.80% ($4.01), or $140.06, down 2.29% ($3.28) depending on the source.
