Campaigning for Nigeria's January presidential election officially began this week, with President Bola Tinubu widely considered to be in a strong position for re-election. This election is a rematch of the 2023 contest, featuring Tinubu against Peter Obi of the Nigeria Democratic Congress and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar of the African Democratic Congress. Despite public anger over the high cost of living, Tinubu has strengthened his ruling party's control across all levels of government and maintained its extensive patronage networks, which analysts like Matthew Page of Chatham House believe gives him a significant advantage, particularly in a low-turnout election.
Tinubu's economic reforms, implemented shortly after he took office in 2023, included the removal of costly fuel subsidies, an overhaul of the tax code, and the ending of the naira's fixed peg against the dollar. These measures, while praised by investors and economists for improving public finances and boosting investor confidence, have led to surging inflation and a significant increase in the cost of living for ordinary Nigerians. Headline inflation cooled to 15.4% in July, but the World Bank reports that over 60% of Nigerians now live below the poverty line, up from 40% in 2019. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has acknowledged improved macroeconomic stability but warned of continued difficult living conditions.
The key issues dominating the election are insecurity, electricity, and the high cost of living. Voters are largely dissatisfied with the administration's handling of these concerns, with nearly 80% of Nigerians believing the country is heading in the wrong direction. However, the opposition remains fractured, which works in Tinubu's favor. His All Progressives Congress (APC) controls the national assembly and 31 out of 36 powerful governorships, providing a robust organizational advantage. The last election in 2023 saw a low turnout of 27%, and similar low engagement could benefit Tinubu.
