According to veteran oil market analyst Fereidun Fesharaki, chairman of FGE consultancy, the United States is in a strong strategic position to "wait out" Iran in their geopolitical and energy standoff. Fesharaki stated that Washington is well-positioned to exercise strategic patience, relying on broad market adjustments to neutralize Tehran's leverage over global crude supplies.
Fesharaki's analysis highlights that the structural realities of the current oil market favor the U.S. Despite regional volatility and threats in the Strait of Hormuz, global supply chains have largely become insulated from abrupt Iranian supply shocks. The U.S. strategy involves stringent sanctions and intercepting Iranian-linked commercial vessels, aiming to choke off Iran's primary revenue. The U.S. administration calculates that internal economic pressure will force diplomatic capitulation before global oil prices spike to unsustainable levels.
The market has increasingly learned to bypass Iran's historical 4 percent share of global daily oil supplies. Major consumers like China have used massive domestic inventories to offset Middle East disruptions. While Brent crude is near $91 per barrel, sustained disruptions could push prices past $100. Alternative supply mechanisms, such as increased output from non-OPEC producers, strategic reserve releases, and demand destruction from higher prices, mitigate the removal of Iranian barrels from the legitimate global market.
Fesharaki also noted that a complex shadow fleet of tankers continues to deliver discounted Iranian crude to independent refineries in Asia, providing Iran with some revenue while helping to balance global supplies. The U.S. tacitly tolerates this illicit flow to prevent a catastrophic price shock at Western gas pumps. The success of this U.S. strategy depends on time and domestic Iranian stability, as an enduring standoff would keep a constant risk premium in oil prices. However, Fesharaki concludes that the U.S. does not need Iranian oil to keep the global economy functioning, enabling Washington to wait for Iran's domestic economy to fracture.
