Despite policy opposition from the Trump administration, U.S. clean energy installations are forecast to reach a new record in 2026, comprising the majority of new power additions. The American Clean Power Association's annual market assessment anticipates approximately 60 gigawatts of solar, battery storage, and wind capacity to be added this year, a 20% increase from the over 50 gigawatts deployed in 2025. This forecast aligns with the higher end of projections from consulting firms including BloombergNEF, S&P Global, and Wood Mackenzie.
While former President Donald Trump has actively sought to curb renewables by ending tax credits, restricting development on public land, and promoting fossil fuels, the sector's growth has been largely sustained. This resilience is partly due to the low cost and ease of building solar projects, which have somewhat insulated the industry from Washington's policy headwinds. The surge also reflects projects initiated under former President Joe Biden that are now coming online.
Preliminary figures from the U.S. Energy Information Administration show U.S. wind and solar generation increased by 10% in the first half of 2026, surpassing coal and nuclear in the country's electricity mix for the first time over a six-month period. Wind and solar accounted for 20% of U.S. electricity generation during this period, up from 18.6% in the first half of 2025. Solar power, in particular, has driven this expansion, with 9 GW installed through May 2026, following record installations of 31 GW in 2024 and 29 GW in 2025.
However, the future outlook for clean energy faces challenges as tax credits for wind and solar projects ended on July 4, 2026, under a budget law signed by Trump. While projects that met the legal definition for starting construction can still qualify for subsidies through the end of the decade, analysts like Helen Kou from BloombergNEF warn that the tax-credit phaseout will alter project economics. This could lead to a "painful adjustment" in the market after 2027, with recovery not expected until the 2030s, even as rising demand from data centers provides an independent driver for renewable and storage investment.
