Swiss voters are expected to reject a proposal aimed at strengthening the country's neutrality in a national vote scheduled for September 27. According to a poll published by Tamedia/20 Minuten, approximately 62% of respondents are likely to vote against the measure, while only 36% support it. This initiative seeks to enshrine a tighter definition of neutrality in the constitution, defining it as "perpetual and armed," which would prohibit participation in third-country wars and economic sanctions against belligerents, except for UN sanctions.
The initiative, backed by the right-wing Swiss People's Party (SVP), has faced strong opposition from the Swiss government and parliament. Supporters of the proposal want to prevent Switzerland from joining or cooperating with military or defense alliances unless facing an attack, and from adopting sanctions like those implemented against Russia. The FDP, a center-right party, has argued that the initiative is harmful and would effectively support aggressor nations such as Russia, stressing that Switzerland should align with peace, rule of law, and democracy.
Russia has reportedly attempted to influence the campaign surrounding this neutrality initiative, utilizing disinformation tactics through various channels, including the Russian Embassy, Kremlin spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, and the Pravda Schweiz portal. False reports, such as one about an alleged Swiss drone killing Russian children, have also circulated on Telegram. Despite these efforts, experts are divided on the actual effectiveness of such disinformation in swaying Swiss voters.
The government has acknowledged the issue of state-directed influence operations and has established a working group to counter them. However, it remains cautious about its countermeasures to avoid exacerbating the perceived threat. While some isolated instances of state-sponsored influence were recorded during the June referendum on the "No to ten million" immigration initiative, there is no conclusive evidence that Russia has decisively influenced Swiss referendums. Experts generally consider Switzerland to be resilient due to its direct democracy and media system.
The current poll suggests that only SVP supporters are clearly in favor of the proposal, with voters from all other major parties largely opposing it. This outcome, if it materializes, would allow Switzerland to maintain its current flexible stance on neutrality, which includes the ability to apply sanctions against countries like Russia.
