Kenya is facing a significant challenge to its food security as a severe drought, particularly in central Kenya, has caused a near-total failure of maize and wheat crops. The country's overall maize output is expected to be lower, necessitating imports to bridge the gap. This comes after production had risen from 34 million bags in 2022 to 67 million bags in 2025, with imports falling during that period.
The drought has led to a sharp increase in maize prices. A 90-kilogram bag of white maize, which was selling for around $25.30 (Sh3,700) two months prior, had climbed to between $30.60 and $31.30 (Sh4,500 and Sh4,600) in parts of the Rift Valley by mid-July. In January, the price for a 90-kilogram bag reached $31, up from $29.50 in November 2025, with further increases anticipated due to speculative buying and hoarding. Farmers in affected regions are converting withered crops into livestock feed to salvage some value.
To address the impending shortage and stabilize prices, the Kenyan government is actively exploring import opportunities. Agriculture CS Mutahi Kagwe stated that $11.6 million (Sh1.7 billion) has been set aside to purchase an initial 1.7 million bags of maize for strategic reserves, with a long-term goal of 4 million bags. The government has already announced plans to import 90,000 tonnes (one million 90-kg bags) of maize from Zambia. Tanzania was a major supplier in April-June 2025, providing about 96% of Kenya's more than 160,000 tonnes of maize imports during that period.
The Cereal Millers Association is also seeking alternative regional sources like Zambia and Tanzania. While the government's first option is to purchase from local farmers to replenish the National Strategic Food Reserves, only 186,000 bags have been delivered so far due to hoarding. President William Ruto has acknowledged the risks posed by changing weather patterns. The concern is that a poor harvest will lead to higher maize flour prices, exacerbating already elevated living costs for households.
