Iran and Oman are reportedly close to finalizing a shipping deal concerning the Strait of Hormuz. This development follows a period where the U.S. had redirected 55 ships due to a blockade, and Iran had tied the Strait's reopening to U.S. concessions, including lifting sanctions and releasing frozen assets. While a full return to normalcy for shipping is expected to take months, analysts predict a trickle of vessels initially, gradually building up to pre-war levels of 140 ships daily.
Market watchers are closely monitoring the Oman-Iran talks, as a successful resolution is anticipated to lead to a drop in Brent and WTI oil prices. However, experts like Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING Bank, suggest that refined products might remain expensive for a longer duration, with prices only easing over time depending on the risk profile.
The Supreme National Security Council of Iran had previously stated that the Strait would not reopen until the U.S. corrects its behavior, demanding an end to threats and a permanent cessation of the war with Iran and its allies. Messages have been exchanged through intermediaries, but Iran has been unwilling to engage in direct talks as long as Washington breaches an interim deal.
