Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei has announced a sweeping plan to assert Tehran’s authority over the strategic Strait of Hormuz, aiming to expel the U.S. from the Gulf region. This initiative involves establishing "new legal frameworks" and a "new management" of the waterway. Iran began restricting ships without permission in early March 2026, leading to a U.S. blockade. Khamenei framed this move as beneficial for regional states, promoting a "bright future" without U.S. presence, and has appealed to Arab states by emphasizing a "common destiny."
Despite Iran's rhetoric of regional cooperation, the underlying tone is assertive, challenging decades of American engagement. Since February 28, 2026, Iran has launched over 4,900 missiles and drones at Gulf nations, with more than 80% targeting GCC countries. As a result, only about seven ships per day are currently passing through the Strait of Hormuz, a sharp decrease from approximately 130 ships daily before the conflict. Iran is reportedly restricting transit to vessels from friendly nations and is imposing fees on passage.
Tehran has transformed the Strait of Hormuz into a financial and strategic weapon. A regulatory body, the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, was established in May 2026, requiring vessels to obtain permits after filing detailed information and paying a fee. Although no official tariff is published, reports indicate vessels are paying as much as $2 million per transit. J.P. Morgan estimates a fully operational regime could generate $70 billion to $90 billion annually for Tehran. The U.S. strongly opposes these fees, insisting the Strait remain an international waterway free from Iranian control.
Iran's strategy involves expanding the conflict beyond Hormuz to pressure the U.S. into concessions. Recent attacks include over 30 Iranian-directed drones on American forces and Saudi energy installations, and a volley of ballistic missiles at U.S. forces in Jordan. While Gulf states like Saudi Arabia are pushing for dialogue, some, such as the UAE, advocate for more decisive action against Iran. Qatari mediators presented a new proposal for opening the Strait, which Iran reacted positively to, but key issues like Iran's desire to collect tolls remain unresolved. The U.S. and its allies maintain that the initial objectives for striking Iran were regime change, elimination of nuclear and missile programs, and dismantling proxy militias.
