Chinese state-owned firm Cofco has booked at least six cargoes of US soybeans for loading between September and October, following a summit between the leaders of the two nations in May. Additionally, the US Department of Agriculture reported sales of 472,000 metric tons of soybeans to China on Wednesday, marking the largest daily deal since November 2025. This recent activity indicates a ramp-up in agricultural trade, with Chinese buyers having committed to purchasing 200,000 tons of American beans last month.
Despite these new purchases, China's 23% tariff on US soybean imports, a remnant from the Trump administration, continues to make them economically uncompetitive. For instance, US soybeans for October shipment are about $40 per ton cheaper than Brazilian cargoes, excluding tariffs. However, the tariff effectively negates this price advantage, leading Chinese importers to prioritize South American suppliers for the bulk of their needs.
In 2024, China imported a record 111.8 million metric tons of soybeans, with $12 billion of the $52.7 billion total coming from the US. However, in 2025, only 22.13 million tons of the total 105 million metric tons imported came from the US. Traders noted that Chinese importers finished booking around 8 million metric tons of soybeans for September, all from South America, and have secured about 4 million tons for October, also from South America, despite the lower price of US beans.
China is also actively pursuing strategies to reduce its overall reliance on soybean imports. The use of fermented feed in industrial feed has risen from 3% in 2022 to 8% currently, with predictions to reach 15% by 2030. This shift could help China cut soybean imports by up to 6.3% from 2025 levels, driven by monetary motivations as feed accounts for 70% of pig rearing costs and soybean prices have been volatile due to trade tensions and global conflicts.
