Copper prices have surged, nearing $14,000 per ton in London, largely driven by the anticipation of US import tariffs. This threat has prompted a significant movement of copper to the United States, with over 200,000 tons arriving at US ports in July alone, the largest monthly volume since 2014, according to IHS Markit shipping data. This influx has led to a massive accumulation of copper in American warehouses and ports, creating a localized abundance while simultaneously tightening availability for buyers in other parts of the world.
Analysts from Ninety One, such as Cheveley, and BNY's Geoff Yu, confirm that copper is being "dragged" to the US due to the looming tariff decision by President Donald Trump. This uncertainty, combined with already constrained mine output globally, leaves the market susceptible to squeezes. The London Metal Exchange (LME) has seen steep backwardation, signaling short-term scarcity despite the growing US stockpiles.
Beyond tariff concerns, increased demand for copper from both the US and China, particularly driven by the artificial intelligence sector, is also contributing to the metal's near-record highs. Copper has risen about 12% year-to-date, with its two-month high near $14,000 per ton in London reflecting a confluence of trade policy and energy transition themes.
