Chinese solar manufacturers are facing severe financial challenges, with major companies like Tongwei, JA, Longi, and Trina Solar forecasting substantial net losses for the first half of 2026. Tongwei expects a net loss of $706 million to $794 million, while JA anticipates a net loss of $353 million to $426 million. Longi projects losses between $500 million and $559 million, and Trina Solar, despite some investment gains, still expects a net loss after non-recurring items of $409 million to $435 million. These losses are primarily attributed to persistent supply-demand imbalances, intense market competition, and declining product prices.
The industry's struggles are exacerbated by US tariffs and a brutal price war, which led to $60 billion in losses last year and forced major players such as Longi Green Energy, Trina Solar, Jinko Solar, JA Solar, and Tongwei to shed an average of 31% of their workforces, totaling some 87,000 staff. The recent US "reciprocal tariffs," announced by former President Donald Trump, included unexpectedly high rates for Southeast Asian countries (e.g., 49% for Cambodia, 46% for Vietnam), significantly increasing the cost of exporting modules to the US and suppressing demand.
In response to the domestic price war, Chinese authorities are considering interventions, which led to a temporary rally in polysilicon futures, with the most-traded contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange rising 8.99% to CNY 35,890 ($5,290) per ton. Shares in Chinese solar manufacturers like Tongwei and Flat Glass also saw sharp increases. There is speculation about potential minimum prices for solar products or price floors in state-owned procurement, though no official announcement has been made. However, higher prices could increase project costs for Chinese buyers, potentially dampening their appetite for further solar investment, while polysilicon supply continues to increase and inventories remain high, indicating an underlying market imbalance.
