JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, predict a rebound in retail investors' share of US equity trading during the second quarter of 2026, following a decline to a four-year low of 17% in the first quarter. This anticipated surge is expected to mirror the trend observed in the second quarter of 2025 and could act as a new tailwind for the stock market.
Evidence for this rebound is drawn from the options market, where call option buying by small option traders significantly increased in April and May 2026, after subsiding between October 2025 and March 2026. This behavior indicates a renewed retail impulse.
Retail traders have shown a pattern of buying the dip, particularly after market corrections. For instance, following a software-led market downturn in early February 2026, retail investor flows surged above the daily average, largely driven by ETFs. Similarly, in May 2026, individual investors increased purchases of technology shares, especially memory chipmakers benefiting from AI, to the highest level in a year, despite mounting worries about the sector's rally losing steam.
