Donald Trump's presence looms large over Brazil's tightly contested presidential election, scheduled for October. Experts like Oliver Stuenkel, a professor at the Getulio Vargas Foundation, anticipate that Brazil will likely be a target of US influence due to Trump's history of "partisan interventionism." The current polls project a close second round between candidates Lula and Bolsonaro, with the right-wing faction emphasizing the importance of a strong relationship with Washington.
Trump's influence, however, may be more nuanced this election cycle. While pro-Bolsonaro lawmaker Sostenes Cavalcante considers the American leader a "decisive factor," he also advises caution, citing Trump's high disapproval ratings among some Brazilians. Past actions, such as Trump's proposed tariff hikes on Brazilian products, have drawn criticism from the Lula administration, which accused Bolsonaro of encouraging such measures, labeling him a "traitor" to Brazil's export-reliant economy.
The relationship between the US and Brazil has seen tensions escalate, particularly concerning diplomatic incidents and trade. The Trump administration previously revoked the visa of Brazil's ambassador to the US, alleging it was a politically motivated response to Brazil's denial of visas for US diplomats. Additionally, the US imposed tariffs of up to 37.5% on thousands of Brazilian exports, claiming unfair competition and forced labor practices, accusations rejected by the Lula administration as attempts to influence the election in favor of Senator Bolsonaro.
Recently, the US government proposed a further 25% tariff on Brazilian imports, citing concerns over illegal deforestation, piracy, and shortcomings in anti-corruption enforcement, and even criticizing Brazil's Pix payment system. This threat of new tariffs has ignited a debate about national sovereignty in the Brazilian presidential campaign, with Lula's allies attempting to link presidential contender Flávio Bolsonaro to potential economic damage, accusing the Bolsonaro family of undermining the country's interests following a meeting with Trump. Lula has also directly warned Trump not to interfere in Brazil's elections, emphasizing that the electoral process is an internal matter for Brazil.
