OPEC's crude oil production experienced a significant surge in June and July 2026. A Bloomberg survey indicated that June's output increased by over 600,000 barrels per day, reaching an estimated 28.81 million barrels daily. This jump was primarily driven by Iranian production, which rose by approximately 320,000 barrels per day to 3.62 million barrels daily. Saudi Arabia also contributed with a 150,000 barrels per day increase, bringing its output to 9.25 million, while the UAE added 80,000 barrels per day. These three nations accounted for more than 90% of the total monthly gain in June.
The increase in June was largely attributed to the restoration of export flows through the Strait of Hormuz following a peace accord between the United States and Iran. However, the situation became more complex in July. Kuwait's crude oil production rose to nearly 2 million barrels per day, up from about 1.65 million barrels per day in June. This was also linked to the easing of restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the overall surge in June, July saw some disruptions; the UAE's exports through the Strait of Hormuz more than halved to 950,000 barrels per day, though it utilized its bypass pipeline to compensate. Saudi Arabia maximized its East-West Pipeline at 7 million barrels per day capacity, with crude building in storage due to Red Sea shipping threats.
While the June increase erased nearly half of the 1.3 million barrels per day collective cut OPEC+ maintained earlier in 2026, July saw renewed volatility in the Strait of Hormuz, with combined Gulf producer flows through the route averaging just 4 million barrels per day, significantly down from a pre-war baseline of 19-20 million barrels per day. OPEC+ also plans to implement a final quota hike of 188,000 barrels per day in September, completing its planned 2026 restoration, with no further increases expected this year.
