SpaceX's first-ever earnings report, due Tuesday, is anticipated with significant market anxiety, as options traders are bracing for a roughly $225 billion swing in the company's value. This reflects a potential 15% move in SpaceX shares in either direction, though with a noticeable bearish bias. The company is expected to report a quarterly loss before interest and taxes of $1.55 billion on revenue nearing $7 billion.
The backdrop for this earnings report is tense, given the stock's rocky start since its June 12 debut. SpaceX shares have fallen 43% from a peak of $201.80 and currently trade around $114.53, down from an intraday high of $225.64. Despite the drop, its market capitalization still stands at $1.5 trillion. Short sellers have capitalized on this decline, with estimated paper profits of $8.3 billion since the IPO and mark-to-market gains of $18.4 billion based on the July 31 closing price of $108.37.
A key event following the earnings will be the unlocking of a significant number of shares. On August 6, some 911.5 million shares owned by insiders, employees, and early investors, which were previously locked up, will become eligible for sale. This influx of shares could further pressure the stock price. Analysts note that the stock's slump, limited trading history, and uncertainty regarding whether its revenue can support its valuation have led to unusually high volatility in its options pricing, with strong interest from traders speculating on a return to the $135 IPO price or even higher.
