Ukraine's agricultural exports are under severe pressure due to intensified Russian strikes on ports, particularly those in Greater Odesa, which suffered over 180 strikes in the first few months of 2026 alone. These attacks have led to a halt in shipping and are projected to cause a loss of approximately $2.5 billion in export revenue in the second half of 2026, according to the National Bank of Ukraine. The overall negative impact on the Ukrainian economy is estimated at 0.9% of GDP for 2026. Prior to the deep-water port blockade, 90% of grain and legume exports passed through these ports, and now, daily export revenue losses are estimated at $80 million.
Alternative export routes, primarily via the Danube River and overland (rail and road), are proving insufficient to compensate for the lost capacity. The Danube ports, while currently the most attractive alternative, have a limited capacity of approximately 1.7 to 1.8 million tons per month and have also been targets of attacks. Furthermore, climatic conditions have significantly lowered water levels in the Danube, complicating navigation and forcing barges to operate at 20-30% capacity. Rail and road routes have historically handled up to 1.8 million tons per month but face challenges. Overall, Ukraine needs to export about 67 million tons of agricultural products, a volume alternative routes cannot fully accommodate.
Logistical costs for alternative routes are substantially higher. Sea freight, which was $20 per ton at the beginning of July, surged to $40 by mid-July after the blockade. Transporting grain from Danube ports to Constanta, Romania, adds another $30 to $40 per ton. Road transport is even more expensive, potentially reaching $100 per ton. These elevated logistics costs, combined with plans by Ukrzaliznytsia to increase freight tariffs by 30% and empty wagon costs by 60%, significantly reduce export profitability. For example, shipping wheat via Constanta can cost $60-$70, representing up to a third of the grain's price of about $210 per ton.
The economic impact extends to Ukrainian agricultural producers, who are experiencing sharply falling purchase prices for their crops. Rapeseed prices have dropped by about 9%, from $493-$515 to $448-$470 per ton, while second-class wheat has fallen by 20%, from $222 to $177 per ton. Feed wheat has seen a nearly 24% decline, from $188 to $143 per ton. These price drops, often below the cost of production, threaten widespread bankruptcies, especially among small farmers who lack storage facilities. This situation also creates pressure on future harvests as farmers face difficulties funding loans, fuel, and autumn sowing, potentially leading to a reduction in sown areas.
