Mona Yacoubian, whose affiliation is identified as CSIS in the headline, has stated that Iran believes it can outlast the United States. This belief stems from Iran's strategy of exploiting vulnerabilities in Middle Eastern trade routes, shipping lanes, and energy infrastructure, turning them into pressure points. By putting multiple maritime chokepoints and energy assets at risk, Iran aims to strengthen its position in any future negotiations with the U.S.
Iran's approach involves a calculated escalation, broadening the conflict without initiating an all-out war. It has demonstrated its capability to disrupt traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway through which approximately one-fifth of global oil consumption flowed before the war, and has indicated that other maritime chokepoints are also vulnerable. This expanding threat includes areas beyond Hormuz, such as the Red Sea and Saudi energy infrastructure, aiming to increase the cost of protecting global commerce and test Washington's tolerance for disruption.
Tehran's ultimate goal is to convince the United States and its allies that accommodating Iran's demands, particularly regarding administrative authority over the Strait of Hormuz, is less costly than containing the ongoing crisis. Iran is seeking the ability to levy service charges on vessels passing through the strait, a demand that Washington has so far rejected, insisting on Hormuz remaining an international waterway free from Iranian control. Iranian leaders appear to believe they can endure economic pressure longer than a U.S.-led coalition can tolerate persistent disruptions to global commerce and energy markets. This strategy is also intended to shape the terms of any future diplomatic negotiations by showcasing Iran's capacity to escalate the crisis when deemed necessary.
