Russia is struggling to recruit enough contract soldiers to sustain its war effort in Ukraine, leading to increasingly aggressive tactics to enlist new personnel. Official sources indicate Russia aims to sign up 409,000 people in 2026 but is only at around the 200,000 mark by mid-year. Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service similarly assessed Russia had signed approximately 195,000 military contracts against a target of 204,500 by mid-year. This shortfall is leading to speculation about a potential new wave of mobilization, despite President Putin's reluctance due to the significant political consequences of the 2022 partial mobilization.
To address the manpower shortage, Russia is offering substantial financial incentives, including high salaries and signing bonuses. These payments can reach up to 5.5 million rubles (approximately $70,266) for a year of service. Regional authorities are also increasing one-time payments, with some regions like Tyumen boosting bonuses to 3 million rubles, which temporarily doubled application rates. Despite these efforts, recruitment rates in Moscow and across Russia have reportedly fallen by one-third compared to 2025.
In addition to financial incentives, reports indicate coercive recruitment methods are being used. These include street raids, targeting men with debts or criminal records, and pressuring university students. Some recruits are reportedly lured under false pretenses for jobs like drivers or security guards, only to be assigned to military units after signing contracts. There are also instances where university students failing exams have been offered military contracts as an alternative to expulsion. Migrants, financially struggling individuals, and homeless people are also being targeted.
The Kremlin is reportedly discussing a new mobilization as early as October, following State Duma elections, to address the acute shortage of personnel. Military analysts estimate Russia needs to replace 55,000-60,000 casualties monthly to achieve its objectives in Donbas. While Russia is broadly replacing battlefield losses, current recruitment mechanisms are not generating the mass needed for a decisive shift in the war. Analysts suggest that the Kremlin is hesitant to implement another mass mobilization due to the economic and political risks involved, including significant spending increases and potential public unrest.
