French banks are now signaling a willingness to finance the 2027 presidential election campaigns, provided the state offers guarantees to mitigate the risks involved. This development could be a significant boost for Marine Le Pen's National Rally (RN), which has historically faced challenges securing loans from French lenders due to its far-right image. The banks' shift is driven by concerns that denying financing to major political parties could undermine democracy and force candidates to seek funds from potentially controversial foreign sources, as the RN did in 2014 from a Russian bank and in 2022 from a Hungarian lender.
The proposed solution, discussed in a meeting between Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu's office and representatives from major French banks on July 20, involves a system where the state and banks would share the financial risks of lending to presidential candidates. This could take the form of a pool of banks jointly providing loans, with the state guaranteeing repayment in case of default. Olivier Gavalda, CEO of Credit Agricole and incoming head of the French Banking Federation (FBF), stated that while Credit Agricole no longer finances presidential campaigns, a collective effort with state guarantees would reduce reputational risk for individual banks and ensure funding access for all candidates.
Banks are particularly concerned about two main risks: candidates failing to reach the 5% vote threshold required for state reimbursement of campaign expenses and the possibility of campaign accounts being rejected by authorities, which would lead to non-repayment. Under current French law, candidates reaching the 5% threshold are reimbursed 47.5% of the spending ceiling, while those who fall short only receive 4.75%. The FBF has formally requested state-backed guarantees, suggesting direct public funding or strong guarantees as the best solutions. The government is currently examining a scheme for risk-sharing between banks and the state, with a legislative measure potentially included in the 2027 budget bill later this year. This approach also aims to avoid creating a dedicated public bank for campaign financing, an idea previously considered and abandoned.
