China's memory-chip manufacturer CXMT experienced a blockbuster stock market debut, but analysts are sharply divided on its future growth prospects. Nomura Holdings Inc. initiated a "buy" rating with a price target of 116 yuan per share, suggesting the stock could rally 1,239% from its initial public offering price. This target is based on a price-to-earnings multiple of 20 times CXMT's expected earnings-per-share for fiscal year 2028 and a projection that CXMT's market share in dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) will increase from about 10% currently to 18% by the end of 2028. Nomura also forecasts CXMT's memory-chip output to grow at 40% to 45% annually through 2030, driven by a more than sevenfold increase in global memory usage by 2030 due to demand for agentic AI.
In stark contrast, Morningstar Inc. analyst Jing Jie Yu set a fair value for CXMT at 14.90 yuan per share, which is significantly lower than Nomura's target and where the stock traded post-IPO. Yu's cautious outlook stems from CXMT's lack of access to extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography equipment, which he believes will make conventional DRAM advancement increasingly difficult and prevent the company from narrowing its technology gap with global rivals. He argues that a valuation discount related to this technological gap should persist, and that CXMT's DRAM will likely sell at lower prices than those of its pure-play memory competitors.
The substantial difference in price targets highlights the ongoing debate among analysts regarding CXMT's potential to become a major global player. CXMT, formerly ChangXin Memory, sold shares at 8.66 yuan apiece via its IPO, which raised 57.9 billion yuan (approximately $8.1 billion). The stock jumped as much as 535% to 55.03 yuan on its first day of trading in Shanghai, making it China's largest listed firm onshore. The company's IPO prospectus indicated it held about 7.7% of the global DRAM market in 2025.
Nomura's optimistic view suggests CXMT could eventually trade at double the valuation of its major US competitor, Micron Technology Inc. However, Morningstar's perspective emphasizes that this valuation premium is unlikely unless CXMT overcomes its EUV constraint while maintaining economic profitability. The divergent analyses underscore the high stakes for CXMT as it aims to challenge established global rivals like Samsung Electronics Co., SK Hynix Inc., and Micron Technology Inc. amid rising demand for memory chips in the AI era. While Nomura projects CXMT's market share reaching 18% by 2028, Counterpoint Research offers a more conservative forecast of 11%.
