Ed Zitron, a financial analyst, argues that OpenAI and Anthropic are “dangerous, lossy companies” that should not be permitted to go public. He contends that these companies are not profitable and lack a clear path to profitability, making them unsuitable for an IPO. Zitron highlights that OpenAI reportedly lost over $20 billion last year and has significant capital expenditures (CapEx) of billions of dollars. He also points out that for every dollar of subscription revenue, OpenAI is spending $13.5.
According to Zitron’s analysis, OpenAI posted a net loss of $38.5 billion in 2025 on $13.07 billion in revenue, and a $20.92 billion loss from operations in 2025 on $13 billion in revenue. In 2024, OpenAI had $3.7 billion in revenue, $12.4 billion in costs and expenses, and a $5.09 billion net loss. He projects OpenAI plans to spend more than $50 billion on compute this year and has accumulated approximately $748 billion in performance obligations to partners like Microsoft, Amazon, and Oracle.
Zitron claims that OpenAI filed confidentially for an IPO last month at an $852 billion valuation, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley leading the process. However, the company is reportedly considering delaying its public offering until 2027, as advisers cautioned that its target of a $1 trillion valuation might be unattainable under current market conditions. Zitron warns that a collapse of OpenAI could have a “violent, punishing effect on the entire stock market,” likening it to a “Lehman Brothers moment” for the AI era.
He also points out the financial risk to infrastructure partners, noting that Oracle has committed over $340 billion to build data center capacity for OpenAI and has seen its credit rating downgraded, with OpenAI cited as a key credit risk. Zitron concludes that the AI industry is in a bubble, and companies like OpenAI and Anthropic, despite their high valuations, are becoming increasingly unprofitable, and investors are being irrational.
