Maruti Suzuki India is expected to report a mixed performance for the first quarter of fiscal year 2027, with strong revenue growth but a likely decline in profit. The company's revenue is anticipated to rise by 31% year-on-year (YoY), driven by a sharp increase in volumes (around 29% YoY) and better average selling prices, with some estimates suggesting revenue growth of up to 36.9% to approximately 52,570 crore rupees.
However, this robust top-line growth is not expected to translate into higher net profit. The average estimate of six brokerages projects a 7% YoY decline in net profit, with some forecasts as high as an 18% fall. This anticipated decline is primarily attributed to higher commodity costs, increased discounts, and lower other income. For example, YES Securities expects adjusted PAT to decline 9% YoY to around 3,370 crore rupees, while Zee Business research estimates a 9.9% fall to 3,345 crore rupees for the quarter ended June 30.
Margin pressures are a significant concern, with brokerages expecting EBITDA margins to contract. For instance, Antique anticipates a 96 basis points YoY contraction in EBITDA margin, and YES Securities projects a 60 basis points YoY contraction to 9.8%. Motilal Oswal expects a 200 basis points quarter-on-quarter contraction to 9.7%. Factors contributing to this margin squeeze include commodity inflation, a weaker product mix (higher share of hatchbacks), higher manufacturing costs, annual employee appraisals, and start-up costs. Despite these pressures, EBITDA is still expected to rise by approximately 24-29% YoY, reflecting the benefit of increased volumes, but declining operational efficiency is indicated by a rising EBITDA alongside shrinking margins.
