ExxonMobil is projected to report substantial profits for the second quarter of 2026, with S&P Capital IQ forecasting $14.9 billion in quarterly profits, more than double the profit from the same period last year. Chevron is also expected to see a significant profit increase, with forecasts of $11.1 billion, over four times its 2025 level. These robust earnings are attributed to a surge in crude oil and natural gas prices following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping lane, and tightened oil product supplies leading to boosted refining margins.
Analysts anticipate ExxonMobil's earnings per share to reach $3.68 for the quarter, a 123% increase compared to $1.64 a year ago. Revenue consensus sits at $97.66 billion, indicating a strong performance. The company itself estimates a $5 billion increase in second-quarter earnings from the first quarter, primarily due to higher oil prices and better refining margins.
ExxonMobil's upstream earnings are expected to rise by approximately $1.6 billion, benefiting from improved production and strong oil prices, with the global benchmark Brent averaging $96.68 per barrel, up 23% from the first quarter. Refining earnings could increase by about $2.6 billion, partly due to the unwinding of prior timing impacts. While Middle East conflicts caused some production disruptions, such as a loss of roughly 100,000 oil-equivalent barrels per day due to downed LNG trains in Qatar, the company expects these hedging-related paper losses to ease as supply disruptions in the Persian Gulf lessen.
