Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has picked up considerably, with more vessels openly signaling their intentions to traverse the chokepoint as tensions between the US and Iran ease. This shift in behavior reflects a growing confidence among shipowners and traders, contributing to a drop in crude futures, with Brent crude falling below $77 a barrel. This compares to pre-conflict prices slightly below $73, indicating that much of the war premiums have been unwound. An interim deal between the US and Iran, agreed to last week, paved the way for this resumption in traffic, a stark contrast to the near standstill experienced since the start of the war in late February.

Commodity research director Matt Smith of Kpler noted that the traffic has become broadly balanced, with 13 crossings moving West to East and 12 moving East to West, suggesting cooperation. Iranian supertankers are now switching on their transponders and loading oil for export, signaling Iran's commitment to the deal. The presence of supertankers, or Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs), is a significant development, with three Saudi Arabian and one UAE supertanker crossing Hormuz on one specific day. These vessels, capable of hauling up to 2 million barrels of oil, highlight the importance of these countries in the global oil market.

On a recent Tuesday, seven tankers were observed in the strait using conventional tracking signals, including two fully-laden non-Iranian supertankers heading out of the Persian Gulf, three product carriers also sailing outbound, and two Iran-flagged Suezmaxes approaching. An eighth VLCC also entered the gulf without broadcasting its location initially. In peacetime, approximately 135 vessels would traverse the waterway daily, typically broadcasting their locations via an Automated Identification System (AIS), a requirement by many insurers and financiers. While more ships are broadcasting, some still opt to turn off their transponders for portions of the crossing, like a Taiwan-bound VLCC that went dark before reappearing in the Gulf of Oman.