On Monday, China's navy test-launched a long-range ballistic missile from one of its nuclear-powered submarines in the South Pacific. This rare action immediately led to protests and expressions of concern from numerous countries in the region, including Australia, Japan, and New Zealand, as well as the United States. According to the official Xinhua News Agency, the missile carried a dummy warhead and the launch, occurring at 12:01 p.m. local time, was described as part of routine annual training that complied with international law and was not targeting any specific country. This is China's first such test since 1980.
New Zealand reported being informed hours prior to the launch and noted that the missile was fired into the South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone, which was established by the 1986 Treaty of Rarotonga. China ratified protocols of this treaty in 1987, pledging not to test nuclear weapons within the zone. Critics argue that while the missile didn't carry a nuclear warhead, the launch violates the spirit of the agreement. The U.S. criticized China for providing only a few hours' notice, calling it insufficient and falling short of standards maintained by other P5 nuclear-weapon states, deeming the act "irresponsible."
Experts suggest the missile was likely a JL-3, China's most advanced submarine-launched ballistic missile, with a range potentially exceeding 10,000 kilometers (6,200 miles)—capable of reaching the continental United States from Chinese coastal waters. The Pentagon's late 2025 report indicated China had an estimated 600 nuclear warheads in 2024 and is on track to field over 1,000 by 2030, a development causing significant concern. The U.S. urged Beijing to engage in meaningful arms control discussions and establish a regularized notification system for missile launches, emphasizing the "rapid and opaque nuclear weapons buildup" is alarming to the region and the world.
China's defense budget, projected at $270 billion in 2026, has seen roughly 7% growth over the past four years, though independent analyses by institutions like the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute suggest actual spending could be higher, potentially reaching $313.7 billion in 2024. This lack of transparency, especially concerning its military modernization, leads to uncertainty about China's intentions, according to Drew Thompson, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. The launch also intensifies already strained relations with countries like Japan, particularly in light of recent geopolitical tensions over Taiwan.
