Despite significant sell-offs since its IPO, Wall Street analysts are largely maintaining positive outlooks on SpaceX. Many major brokers, including Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase & Co., and Goldman Sachs Group Inc., issued buy-equivalent ratings after the underwriters' quiet period ended, with price targets averaging $236 per share, a substantial premium to the $135 IPO price. This bullish sentiment persists even as the stock has fallen below its offering price.
SpaceX's stock has faced considerable pressure, dropping below its $135 IPO price and reaching a record low of $115.26. The company experienced a 3% decline on Tuesday and continued its slide, losing 5.43% on Friday after an aborted Starship test flight. Overall, the stock has plummeted nearly 23% since its inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 after only 15 trading days.
Short sellers have capitalized on the stock's decline, accumulating an estimated $15.5 billion in paper profits since mid-June, according to Ortex Technologies data. Approximately 360 million SpaceX shares, representing about 56% of the free float, were on loan through Tuesday, indicating sustained bearish positioning. Ortex co-founder Peter Hillerberg noted that short sellers are "leaning in harder" rather than taking profits.
The decline in SpaceX's stock also coincides with a broader sector downturn, with Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB) sinking 9% to $60.63 and AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) dropping 7% to $54.09. The Procure Space ETF was also down 2% to $43.03, suggesting a theme-wide weakness. This sector-wide pressure has overshadowed positive company-specific news for other space firms.
Analysts remain constructive on SpaceX, with 27 out of 32 recommending buying the stock, four having "Hold" ratings, and only one recommending "Sell." They argue that SpaceX's Starlink satellite internet business, government launch operations, and CEO Elon Musk's track record justify a valuation premium, despite the company reporting a net loss of nearly $5 billion last year.
