Macquarie Group has significantly cut its oil price forecasts for 2026 and 2027, attributing the change to expectations of a swift recovery in crude supplies from the Persian Gulf following a peace deal between the United States and Iran. The bank now projects Brent crude to average $77 per barrel in 2026, a notable decrease from its previous estimate of $89 per barrel. Similarly, the 2027 forecast has been reduced to $64 per barrel from $74 per barrel.
According to Macquarie strategists Peter Taylor and Vikas Dwivedi, regional producers are poised to restore production and exports more rapidly than market participants currently anticipate. They emphasized that the market is "substantially underestimating the pace of recovery and the oil market’s ability to heal itself." Factors such as the region's production expertise, existing storage capacity, and operational flexibility are expected to accelerate the return of supply, thereby mitigating earlier concerns about disruptions.
The bank also highlighted that the oil market was already experiencing an oversupply prior to the recent conflict, and softer demand coupled with inventory drawdowns had helped absorb initial supply shocks, limiting their impact on prices. While near-term oil prices may remain volatile as shipping activities in the region normalize, the longer-term outlook suggests that rebuilding commercial and strategic inventories could offer some price support.
